Derivation Web

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# Alpha memo: cold water immersion bounded update

**Research question:** Does the positive signal in Receipt 1 hold in the setting tested by Receipt 2?

**One-sentence alpha:** cold water immersion looks positive in Receipt 1 but is limited by Receipt 2, so the alpha is an endpoint- and setting-dependent update rather than a universal benefit claim.

**Receipt 1:** The Effects of Daily Cold-Water…