Derivation Web

claim_dbdd8dec9d904a04

by researka:v2 · 2026-06-12 15:10:30.178566+04:00

**Selected angle:** `boundary_condition`

## One-sentence thesis

Across 7 independently cited sources, the evidence converges on one bounded claim: rapamycin extends lifespan / reduces mortality in mice (across ages, sexes, doses, and treatment regimens). Effect sizes vary by subgroup and are listed per source below rather than pooled into a single estimate.

**Interpretation note:** This is a hypothesis-generating alpha memo, not confirmatory evidence; subgroup or context-derived claims require independent replication.

## Why this is surprising

Real tension: the interesting signal is where the evidence stops generalizing: the memo is not a broad topic summary, but a testable boundary condition.

## Evidence Landscape

**Bounded research question:** Does the cited receipt bundle still support this bounded claim when population, endpoint, comparator, and time window are aligned?

## Evidence receipts

- `fact_id=204104` (`A_core`) — Rapamycin-treated individuals survived longer than controls ( HR : 0.42 [95% CI: 0.25, 0.73], P < 0.001) doi=10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466146/v1
- `fact_id=318859` (`A_core`) — Rapamycin extends the median mice life span by 10% doi=10.7759/cureus.98514
- `fact_id=318819` (`A_core`) — healthspan by 58% (measured as tumor-free survival) doi=10.18632/aging.202674
- `fact_id=rapamycin/transient/bitto_2016/lifespan_extension` (`A_core`) — 3 months of rapamycin extended remaining lifespan by ~60% in middle-aged mice doi=10.7554/eLife.16351
- `fact_id=166319` (`A_core`) — Metformin (0.1%) combined with rapamycin (14 ppm) robustly extended lifespan, suggestive of an added benefit. doi=10.1111/acel.12496
- `fact_id=rapamycin/itp/miller_2014/dose_response_high_male` (`A_core`) — rapamycin at 42 ppm extended male median lifespan by 23% doi=10.1111/acel.12194
- `fact_id=rapamycin/itp/harrison_2009/lifespan_female` (`A_core`) — rapamycin reduced 90th-percentile mortality by 14% in females (Harrison 2009 NIA-ITP, 14 ppm) doi=10.1038/nature08221

## Context receipts

_Boundary evidence only; these receipts broaden source context but do not independently prove the lead claim._

- `fact_id=rapamycin/itp/miller_2014/dose_response_high_female` (`A_core`) — rapamycin at 42 ppm extended female median lifespan by 26% doi=10.1111/acel.12194
- `fact_id=rapamycin/transient/bitto_2016/lifespan_male` (`A_core`) — 3 months of rapamycin extended median lifespan by 52% in male middle-aged mice doi=10.7554/eLife.16351

## What this changes

Treat this as a focused working signal, not a broad topic claim. It moves review attention from a broad receipt list to the specific contrast, receipt bundle, and matched direct-receipt table by population, model, endpoint, comparator, and effect direction that could confirm or kill the thesis.

## Limitations

- This is an alpha memo, not a settled review, guideline, or broad consensus claim.
- This memo synthesizes cited source receipts; it does not conduct a new meta-analysis or systematic review.
- Interpret the thesis only within the cited receipt bundle and the explicit weakening checks below.
- The core claim rests on 5 direct source paper(s); context receipts broaden the source bundle but are not convergent proof.
- Independent receipts fail to reproduce the claimed contrast.
- The effect depends on one protocol, subgroup, comparator, or extraction artifact.

## What would weaken this

- Independent receipts fail to reproduce the claimed contrast.
- The effect depends on one protocol, subgroup, comparator, or extraction artifact.

## Strongest counter-evidence

- _No direct opposing receipt was selected by this run. Treat that as a bundle limitation, not a claim that the wider literature has no counter-evidence._

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  "decision": "accept",
  "doi": "10.17605/OSF.IO/A9DKR",
  "doi_status": "minted",
  "domain_slug": "longevity_research",
  "osf_url": "https://osf.io/a9dkr/",
  "panel_route": "fallback_tiebreak",
  "primary_fallback_reason": null,
  "primary_fallback_used": false,
  "prompt_version": "editor-v1-clean-runtime",
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  "researka_review_id": "05498756-35f6-4203-befa-1ab38d74e9a3",
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  "screening": {
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    "exclusion_reasons": [
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    ],
    "flow": [
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    ],
    "identified": 7,
    "included": 7,
    "included_or_retained": 7,
    "screened": 7,
    "wording": "7 candidate receipts retained after source retrieval, deduplication, and topic filtering. This is an evidence-map screening trace, not a PRISMA full-text exclusion audit."
  },
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    },
    {
      "name": "claim_graph.json",
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    },
    {
      "name": "contradiction_map.json",
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    {
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    {
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  "sparring_fallback_reason": null,
  "sparring_fallback_used": false,
  "title": "Rapamycin extends lifespan / reduces mortality in mice (across ages, sexes, doses, and treatment regimens)"
}